Magic 21
Influencing intractable issues
Your most challenging and interesting problems have never been solved before. They are “wicked” problems because they cannot be solved at all. These problems are the special territory of human systems dynamics. Our models and methods work well on tame issues, but they also help with the most wicked ones. HSD was created to help you see, understand, and influence problems that are impossible to solve. Magic 21 holds the key to seeing, understanding, and influencing intractable issues.
Most of the things you do and problems you solve are familiar to you. You have done them before; you have seen someone else do them; or they resemble something you have previously seen or done. They are “tame” problems. Tame problems can be solved in traditional ways. Divide it up into parts, and solve the parts separately. Consult an expert who knows the answer. Replicate a solution that worked before.
Your challenging and most interesting problems are different. You have never solved, or seen someone else solve the problem before. They are “wicked” problems because they cannot be solved at all. Traditional problem solving methods do not work. In fact, wicked problems are impossible to solve no matter what method you use, old or new. They will never be solved, but you still have to take action to deal with them. Examples of wicked problems include world hunger, social justice, weeds in your yard, climate change, and chronic illness. None of these will ever be solved once and for all. All of them require ongoing engagement, innovation, and creativity forever. These wicked problems are the special territory of human systems dynamics.
HSD models and methods work well on tame issues, but other approaches do, too. HSD was created to help you see, understand, and influence problems that are impossible to solve. Along with Adaptive Action, Pattern Logic is an essential part of the HSD approach to wicked problems. In the same way that Aristotelian Logic helps you understand and work with predictable causes and relationships, Pattern Logic helps you deal with the unpredictable world of wicked problems.
Pattern Logic gives you a discipline to:
See, understand, and influence how a situation is bounded and defined. We call these systemic features “containers.” (C)
See, understand, and influence the differences within the container of the situation that make it more or less fit for function. We call those systemic features “difference.” (D)
See, understand, and influence the connections across differences and among items inside the container. We call these “exchanges.” (E)
Altogether, the CDE of a situation constitutes its pattern, and the discipline of working with the CDE is called Pattern Logic.
What ?
The first Adaptive Action question is to ask, “What are the current patterns in the situation?” So, the first way you use the Magic 21 is to capture underlying, significant patterns in the situation. Looking at all the patterns relative to your wicked issue, choose three that stand out most powerfully. Reflect on what you see and begin to fill in a grid like the one below.
Fill out the first row of the grid:
Name the container that bounds the first of your patterns.
Identify three significant differences that shape that pattern.
Identify three exchanges that are contributing to the wicked issue in the context of that container.
2. Repeat for the other two rows, identifying additional containers and the significant differences and exchanges within each of those.
When you are finished, you will have named 21 conditions that shape or contribute to the wickedness of your issue. We sometimes call this a CDE Portrait, but we also recognize it as Magic 21. The magic arises because any one of the 21 conditions can be a lever for change. Change any one of them, and the pattern of the wicked problem will shift.
So what?
When the picture of the current state is complete, you can go to the second step of the Adaptive Action process, to consider what it means and what are your options for action. Looking at the pattern of the issue through the lens of the table of CDES, you can begin to assess the power and potential of the pattern. Consider the following questions:
Where does the system seem to be over-constrained? under-constrained
In what ways do the conditions constraining the system and contributing to the wicked issue?
What level of constraint might be best fit?
What actions might shift constraints in the system?
Now what?
So how do you choose which condition to shift? As you reflect on the possible actions, ask yourself:
Which one(s) are within the scope of what you can do?
Which one(s) will move you and your colleagues toward best fit at any given time, keeping mind that each situation is unique, and fitness depends on the context.
Which one(s) is the easiest?
Which one(s) might have the greatest impact on the whole?
Which one(s) might draw others into collaboration?
Next what?
When you have chosen and taken action the pattern naturally shifts in ways you may not expect. As soon as that happens, you can being your next cycle of Adaptive Action. Using Pattern Logic to see what current patterns hold, to understand how they are supporting or constraining the system, and taking action to shift toward more coherence and energy and usefulness.